U.S. Gas Prices Seen Staying Above $3 in 2026

U.S. gasoline prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels of about $3.00 a gallon in 2026, even if fighting involving Iran were to end immediately, energy analysts said. The national average gasoline price was $4.55 a gallon as of May 22, up roughly $1.50 since late February, when U.S. and Israeli forces initiated attacks on Iran.

Analysts said pump prices could fall quickly on initial market reaction if hostilities stop, but a broader reset would depend on how much energy infrastructure in the Middle East was damaged and how fast oil and shipping flows can normalize. They also pointed to the time it takes to move crude from production to refineries and then into retail fuel markets.

A key risk is the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil trade that has been disrupted by the conflict. About 25% of global seaborne crude oil trade—around 20 million barrels per day—typically transits the strait, analysts said.

Supply chain and infrastructure constraints

Energy experts said assessing and repairing oil infrastructure and unwinding logistics bottlenecks could take weeks to months, even after a ceasefire. Beyond any physical damage, vessels may need to be repositioned and shipping backlogs cleared before cargo flows return to typical patterns.

Turning crude oil into retail fuel is also a time-intensive process. Analysts said the full chain of extraction, transportation, refining and distribution generally takes 30 to 60 days, limiting how quickly consumers can see sustained relief at the pump.

How long normalization could take

Industry estimates for a return to pre-conflict fuel prices range from six months to two years, even with an immediate end to hostilities, experts said. Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, said a minimum recovery period could be roughly as long as the conflict itself, because markets and supply chains need time to reset.

Using that rule of thumb, Cinquegrana said that if fighting ended by late June—after about 18 weeks—prices might still take at least that long to normalize. Analysts also flagged seasonal U.S. demand as a near-term factor, with AAA projecting 45 million Americans will travel during the Memorial Day weekend, adding pressure during the summer driving season.

Markets will be watching for any developments affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz and for signs that regional production, refining and shipping can return to normal operations.