A360
Key Takeaways✦ Atlas AI
01
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a significant jump in early March, reaching 1.5 million bpd, driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
02
The U.S. granted India a temporary waiver, enabling it to increase Russian oil purchases to counter supply shortages from its traditional Middle Eastern sources.
03
Despite the increase in Russian imports, India is still expected to face a substantial supply gap from the Middle East, potentially leading to a drawdown of refinery stocks.
04
The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created one of the largest oil supply disruptions in history, impacting global energy markets.
Atlas AI
5 million barrels per day (bpd) between March 1st and 12th. This surge, representing a 41% rise from January and a 45% increase from February, comes as a direct response to a major supply disruption in the Middle East. , Israel, and Iran, and subsequent retaliatory actions by Iran, led to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates this event has impacted approximately 20 million bpd of crude oil and petroleum product flows, marking it as potentially the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Historically, India has relied heavily on Middle Eastern nations for its crude oil, sourcing about 52% of its daily 5 million bpd requirement from the region.
To mitigate the impact of the Middle East tensions on its refineries, the United States granted India a 30-day waiver, allowing it to purchase crude oil from Russia. This waiver facilitated the substantial increase in Russian oil imports. 03 million bpd in February. S. further eased restrictions by permitting the purchase of Russian oil already at sea in tankers until April 11th, with an estimated 130 million barrels of Russian crude currently afloat.
Ivan Mathews, Head of Asia-Pacific Analysis at Vortexa, anticipates a continued rise in India's Russian crude imports. 7 million bpd deficit from the Middle East. Mathews projects an overall decline in India's total crude oil imports for March, forcing refineries to draw from existing stockpiles.
