A360
Key Takeaways✦ Atlas AI
01
US Treasury yields show a mixed picture, with shorter-term yields declining while medium and longer-term yields increased over the past year, indicating evolving investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.
02
The divergence in Treasury yields, particularly the rise in longer-term rates, suggests market participants anticipate sustained inflation or stronger economic activity, potentially influencing future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
03
The decline in municipal bond yields across various maturities indicates increased demand for these tax-exempt securities, possibly reflecting a flight to safety or a search for yield in a volatile market environment.
Atlas AI
US Treasury yields showed a pronounced split across maturities as of April 28, 2026, with short-dated rates lower than a year earlier while intermediate and longer-term yields rose. The year-on-year moves left the front end below longer-term benchmarks in the snapshot, even as longer maturities remained elevated.
On the shortest tenors cited, yields declined over the past year. The 3-month Treasury yield fell by 61 basis points to 3.67%, the 6-month yield dropped by 47 basis points to 3.70%, and the 12-month yield decreased by 20 basis points to 3.69%.
Real GDP Growth2.1%USA 2026 — IMF (↑ prev: 2.0%)
Inflation (CPI)2.4%USA 2026 — IMF (↓ prev: 2.7%)
Unemployment Rate4.1%USA 2026 — IMF (↓ prev: 4.2%)
Front-end declines contrast with higher intermediate yields
Further out the curve, intermediate Treasury yields moved in the opposite direction on a year-on-year basis. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 19 basis points to 3.84%, while the 5-year yield increased by 21 basis points to 3.98% over the same period.
Those changes placed the 5-year yield above the 2-year yield as of the stated date. Both intermediate maturities remained below the 10-year yield in the same snapshot, highlighting that the curve did not shift uniformly across tenors over the year.
Longer maturities climb, with the 30-year near 5%
Longer-term Treasury yields also increased year-on-year in the figures provided. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 14 basis points to 4.35% as of April 28, 2026.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose 29 basis points to 4.93%, ending near 5% in the snapshot. With the 10-year and 30-year higher than most shorter maturities listed, the long end remained elevated relative to the front end in this set of data.
Fed Funds readings and municipal yields in the same snapshot
Policy-rate references included alongside the Treasury levels showed a Fed Funds Rate of 3.64% and a target rate of 3.75%. The material did not specify the timing or methodology behind those Fed Funds readings.
Municipal bond yields cited in the same material moved lower over the year. The 1-year municipal bond yield declined by 56 basis points to 2.37%, and the 30-year municipal bond yield fell by 19 basis points to 4.33%.
Macro context included, but drivers remain unspecified
Separately, an IMF figure cited in the material put US real GDP growth at 2.1% for 2026, up from a previous 2.0%. The yield snapshot provided levels and year-on-year changes, but it did not show intra-year moves.
The figures also did not identify what drove the changes, leaving uncertainty over whether expectations, supply-demand dynamics, or other factors not included in the data were behind the year-on-year shifts.
